Conflict Induced Migration and its Impact on Land Resources in Plateau State, Nigeria

Abstract

The study assessed the Impact of conflict induced migration on the environment in Plateau State, Nigeria, through a combination of both the Geographic Information System and the SPSS to analyze the satellite images and the population data for the internally displaced persons in the area. It related the images of the area for 4 different years in the last decade; the year just before the crises began (2000), the second after two major conflicts (2006), the third after the fourth major conflict (2010) and finally, a projection of the area in the year 2020.From the image analyses and the correlations, a significant positive relationship was discovered to be present between conflict and environmental degradation (r= 0.84, at p<0.05) and the correlation ascertaining the relationship between migration and the depletion of land resources shows that the more the mobility of conflict displaced migrants the less the land resources become in the destination areas, and the less the migration the more the land resources with (r= -0.45, at p<0.05). The Markov Chain analysis and cellular automata analysis forecast showed that by the year 2020, in Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria, there will be increased demand and pressure on land resources; which will show up in forms of declining crop production, biodiversity loss, degradation of land quality and quantity, and competition for land. Little accessible forest cover will remain; the deforestation will lead to a catastrophic increase in soil erosion and loss of productive land through accelerated landslide incidence, and a possible disruption of the normal hydrological cycle. Furthermore, by this time the built up area would have taken over about 80% of the total area while the land resources will only be found in 20% of the total area.